Russel’s teapot, or would serology suitable for historical reconstructions of COVID-19?

  • True positive rate (TP) or sensitivity, percentage of SARS-CoV-2 exposed cases truly declared as positive cases.
  • Specificity, percentage of cases correctly declared negative, i.e. SARS-CoV-2 unexposed cases.
  • False positive (FP) rate, the opposite to the above, i.e. 1 — Specifity.
  • Prevalence, fraction of the population actually exposed to SARS-CoV-2.
Number* of true seropositives:1) COVID-19 already in September, 2019: [0 0 0 0 0 0 2 7]2) No COVID-19 until January, 2020: [0 0 0 0 0 4 16 64]Number* of reported positives by the RBD-antibody tests (scenario 1):IgM: [20 20 20 20 20 20 21 25]IgG: [100 100 100 100 100 101 101 101]* out of total N=1000, in a series [September...March]
Figure A
Figure B

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Andrey Alexeyenko

Andrey Alexeyenko

Bioinformatician, biostatistician, consultant http://www.evistat.se/ Science For Life Laboratory, Stokholm